Analysis of market operation of light burned magnesium powder

First, the mainstream market price of magnesia

In October, the average price of light burnt magnesium 85# in Haicheng area was 539 yuan/ton (including tax price), which was the same as last month; the average price of mid-range magnesia 95# was 1188 yuan/ton (including tax price), compared with last month. Compared with no significant change; the average price of fused magnesia 97# is 2555 yuan / ton (including tax price). The average price of light burnt magnesium 85# in Dashiqiao area is 528 yuan/ton (including tax price), which is the same as last month; the average price of mid-range magnesia 95# is 1190 yuan/ton (including tax price), compared with last month. No significant change; the average price of fused magnesia 97# is 2740 yuan / ton (including tax price).

In October, the prices of magnesia products in Haicheng and Dashiqiao areas were the same as in the previous month, without exception. As temperatures continue to fall, complex and volatile weather affects downstream end-user demand. As winter approaches, the progress of the work is the main source of demand. As the downstream demand decreases or even stagnate, the lack of floating conditions is expected to continue to stabilize.

Second light burned magnesium powder exports

According to customs data, in October 2013, China exported 19,539 tons of light-burned magnesia, with an export value of US$4,392,300. The export volume decreased by 28.66% year-on-year and 3.9% quarter-on-quarter. The export of light burnt magnesium powder was 32,934.858 tons, a decrease of 33.47% over the same period, a decrease of 24.17% from the previous month, and an export value of 1010.49 million US dollars. The export of fused magnesia was 17,751.35 tons, and the export value was 10.7964 million US dollars. The export volume decreased by 0.6% compared with the same period, and the chain decreased by 40.08%.

According to customs statistics, from January to October 2013, China exported a total of 916,900 tons of magnesia, and the total export volume decreased by about 115,900 tons compared with the same period of last year, with a total value of about 340 million US dollars. Compared with the same period of last year, it is lag behind 0.38 billion yuan.

The export volume decreased by the same amount and the ring ratio. The short-term centralized replenishment of the international market has come to an end. The decline in the European market and the stalemate in the US market have all contributed to the sharp decline in the export market. According to the usual practice, the fourth quarter is the peak season for the export of magnesia. According to the current market situation, the magnesia export market in 2013 may be difficult to see.

In terms of average export prices, the average export price in October was US$360.18/ton, which was US$14.43/ton higher than that in October 2012. Compared with September, the drop was over RMB 20/ton. The average export price fell sharply after the unexpected increase in the previous month, lacking actual demand to support, and fearing that the price of the price will reappear.

Third, the outlook of the market outlook

Although the building materials and household index reached a new high this year, the growth rate has obviously weakened. As the temperature gradually decreases, the traditional off-season of the building materials industry has arrived. It is understood that many building materials enterprises in Shandong and other places have stopped working, leading to the production of upstream raw materials. The company has gradually turned weak. At present, the operating rate of light burned magnesia kiln in Haicheng area has dropped to about 60%. It is expected that the whole light burned magnesia market will gradually weaken in the next two months, and a new round of stocking will be started before and after the Spring Festival.

In November, demand for refractory materials declined this month as environmental protection efforts increased and steel mills overhauled at the end of the year. The demand and inventory of the steel industry have strong seasonal changes. From the end of the year to the Spring Festival, procurement usually slows down or even stagnates. Therefore, the demand for magnesia is directly affected. In addition, the increase in the proportion of direct supply between steel mills and production companies and the direct sales strategy of steel traders have also made the "winter storage" that has been deserted in recent years more halal this year. There is no production plan for steel mills. Difficult to have a big improvement, on the other hand, with the reform of the production structure, it is expected that the demand for refractory materials will continue to increase with the improvement of product quality in the future. That is to say, the quality requirements for magnesia are getting higher and higher. It is expected that the advantages of high-purity magnesia will become more obvious in the future, and the current production situation is difficult to meet the market demand. Therefore, the author suggests that the manufacturer make detailed plans for the production in the coming year during the rest of the year.

In the international market, the European and American markets continue to be weak and demand is limited. And the competition in the magnesia market is becoming more and more fierce, and the domestic magnesium sand products have limited competitive advantages. According to the October data on exports, it is not difficult to see that the export market started in the fourth quarter as expected. Although the average export price was higher than the same period last year, the export volume dropped sharply. At the end of the year, the lack of favorable conditions to support the export market is difficult to do, the international steel market is exhausted, and demand is difficult to improve. In summary, it is expected that the magnesia market will be stable and weak before the Spring Festival.